This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Zimbabwe
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-2266046 |
-13.5 |
-41.2 |
-286 |
-3.5 |
| 25.0% |
456515 |
2.9 |
6.2 |
1899 |
21.7 |
| 50.0% |
2495477 |
11.5 |
40.8 |
3609 |
33.3 |
| 75.0% |
4514487 |
19.2 |
64.5 |
5134 |
41.9 |
| 97.5% |
7522500 |
40.5 |
84.6 |
10234 |
61.8 |