This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Viet Nam
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
14545372 |
24.2 |
31.8 |
18131 |
26.2 |
| 25.0% |
20309606 |
39.7 |
63.6 |
29337 |
38.5 |
| 50.0% |
23492493 |
50.5 |
74.1 |
40245 |
47.0 |
| 75.0% |
26897264 |
59.3 |
80.9 |
52050 |
53.8 |
| 97.5% |
34657363 |
70.0 |
88.2 |
74412 |
64.6 |