This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: United States
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-8823726 |
-2.5 |
-42.1 |
-78519 |
-6.9 |
| 25.0% |
19362871 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
12632 |
1.1 |
| 50.0% |
29452384 |
7.3 |
18.5 |
52970 |
4.2 |
| 75.0% |
39853170 |
9.4 |
30.9 |
115217 |
8.9 |
| 97.5% |
59227620 |
13.3 |
51.0 |
218300 |
16.4 |