This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Uruguay
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-525742 |
-14.6 |
-109.7 |
-2680 |
-38.9 |
| 25.0% |
-5145 |
-0.1 |
-24.4 |
713 |
6.6 |
| 50.0% |
136386 |
4.0 |
10.1 |
2673 |
25.1 |
| 75.0% |
445241 |
13.6 |
43.6 |
4955 |
40.0 |
| 97.5% |
1343298 |
34.1 |
78.9 |
11103 |
60.1 |