This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Ukraine
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-572371 |
-2.6 |
-74.8 |
-5736 |
-5.6 |
| 25.0% |
33237 |
0.1 |
-8.8 |
-900 |
-0.8 |
| 50.0% |
172392 |
0.7 |
22.1 |
2798 |
2.5 |
| 75.0% |
577039 |
2.0 |
43.6 |
7864 |
6.2 |
| 97.5% |
4352032 |
10.4 |
64.5 |
20675 |
14.8 |