This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Turkey
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-7344001 |
-9.9 |
-53.2 |
-5545 |
-6.1 |
| 25.0% |
-2289535 |
-3.5 |
6.8 |
5261 |
4.9 |
| 50.0% |
-758980 |
-1.2 |
31.8 |
11774 |
10.1 |
| 75.0% |
1442746 |
2.0 |
51.1 |
20611 |
15.2 |
| 97.5% |
18239167 |
15.0 |
75.1 |
47309 |
28.6 |