This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Turkey
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-7700272 |
-10.1 |
-61.7 |
-7369 |
-7.5 |
| 25.0% |
-2316954 |
-3.7 |
6.9 |
2496 |
2.3 |
| 50.0% |
-954546 |
-1.5 |
27.6 |
8466 |
7.7 |
| 75.0% |
578192 |
0.8 |
47.4 |
15157 |
12.1 |
| 97.5% |
8466555 |
9.0 |
69.3 |
34054 |
22.7 |