This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Serbia
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1225673 |
-16.3 |
-32.3 |
-1056 |
-5.2 |
| 25.0% |
-93204 |
-1.4 |
15.1 |
2875 |
13.8 |
| 50.0% |
279120 |
3.6 |
40.2 |
5126 |
21.6 |
| 75.0% |
690809 |
7.5 |
61.5 |
8162 |
30.0 |
| 97.5% |
1847433 |
18.0 |
81.7 |
15654 |
45.1 |