This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Poland
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-3462157 |
-7.9 |
-43.8 |
-12252 |
-10.0 |
| 25.0% |
-742216 |
-1.7 |
1.1 |
-2313 |
-1.9 |
| 50.0% |
49246 |
0.1 |
18.3 |
475 |
0.4 |
| 75.0% |
713956 |
1.7 |
36.1 |
3738 |
2.8 |
| 97.5% |
3845249 |
7.5 |
58.2 |
13936 |
8.6 |