This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Philippines
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-26349776 |
-18.5 |
-26.3 |
-2328 |
-3.2 |
| 25.0% |
-2590728 |
-1.8 |
21.5 |
3529 |
4.1 |
| 50.0% |
6212298 |
4.4 |
36.0 |
6818 |
7.8 |
| 75.0% |
12305207 |
10.3 |
52.4 |
10345 |
11.6 |
| 97.5% |
25349867 |
26.7 |
77.1 |
22211 |
21.3 |