This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Panama
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-168229 |
-2.4 |
-14.9 |
-1287 |
-11.0 |
| 25.0% |
491910 |
7.1 |
32.1 |
291 |
2.9 |
| 50.0% |
880850 |
12.5 |
54.6 |
1211 |
10.9 |
| 75.0% |
1399825 |
19.4 |
68.9 |
2651 |
22.1 |
| 97.5% |
2424275 |
38.1 |
85.8 |
6502 |
46.2 |