This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Malaysia
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-5909607 |
-14.1 |
-56.0 |
-8888 |
-24.8 |
| 25.0% |
1495674 |
3.4 |
11.6 |
-1053 |
-2.7 |
| 50.0% |
4864496 |
10.6 |
33.0 |
3369 |
7.9 |
| 75.0% |
8566147 |
16.2 |
49.1 |
7823 |
16.3 |
| 97.5% |
14856794 |
22.5 |
69.6 |
16108 |
25.2 |