This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Mexico
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-436853 |
-0.2 |
7.7 |
-59906 |
-18.2 |
| 25.0% |
10020544 |
3.6 |
10.5 |
-19918 |
-5.5 |
| 50.0% |
16758909 |
5.8 |
12.4 |
10946 |
2.9 |
| 75.0% |
23257751 |
7.7 |
14.9 |
23388 |
5.9 |
| 97.5% |
36040632 |
11.4 |
42.4 |
43190 |
10.5 |