This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Moldova, Republic of
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-874044 |
-12.7 |
-48.1 |
-3865 |
-32.1 |
| 25.0% |
-214229 |
-3.5 |
-0.3 |
-1428 |
-13.2 |
| 50.0% |
-26274 |
-0.4 |
7.1 |
-417 |
-3.3 |
| 75.0% |
145824 |
2.2 |
29.3 |
649 |
4.1 |
| 97.5% |
1019576 |
15.6 |
71.4 |
5056 |
31.1 |