This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Moldova, Republic of
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-870727 |
-12.3 |
-30.4 |
-3959 |
-34.4 |
| 25.0% |
-105145 |
-1.4 |
1.2 |
-1124 |
-9.6 |
| 50.0% |
193463 |
3.0 |
31.9 |
937 |
6.7 |
| 75.0% |
631731 |
9.4 |
62.1 |
3619 |
22.7 |
| 97.5% |
1322992 |
20.4 |
84.2 |
8411 |
43.9 |