This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Morocco
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1474412 |
-7.8 |
-82.2 |
1467 |
5.7 |
| 25.0% |
1237192 |
7.2 |
19.2 |
5233 |
22.0 |
| 50.0% |
2296227 |
12.2 |
49.5 |
8151 |
31.9 |
| 75.0% |
3464167 |
22.4 |
68.0 |
12825 |
43.0 |
| 97.5% |
6802005 |
47.4 |
84.0 |
23654 |
61.2 |