This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Morocco
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1025416 |
-4.1 |
-3.7 |
2666 |
10.8 |
| 25.0% |
3796547 |
17.5 |
66.1 |
14510 |
44.3 |
| 50.0% |
6929297 |
33.8 |
78.8 |
22672 |
57.3 |
| 75.0% |
10704751 |
50.4 |
86.8 |
33212 |
67.9 |
| 97.5% |
16645341 |
72.5 |
94.1 |
60480 |
82.0 |