This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Sri Lanka
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1413571 |
-8.7 |
-127.5 |
2686 |
12.0 |
| 25.0% |
401325 |
3.5 |
-2.5 |
6145 |
25.0 |
| 50.0% |
1417188 |
11.3 |
35.5 |
9488 |
33.6 |
| 75.0% |
3389183 |
24.1 |
59.1 |
14771 |
46.3 |
| 97.5% |
7530286 |
55.4 |
85.7 |
36109 |
73.7 |