This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Sri Lanka
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1339864 |
-10.5 |
-155.2 |
2634 |
12.8 |
| 25.0% |
405490 |
3.3 |
-19.6 |
6674 |
26.3 |
| 50.0% |
1787453 |
13.5 |
27.4 |
10438 |
35.3 |
| 75.0% |
3693367 |
25.8 |
56.6 |
18117 |
51.3 |
| 97.5% |
10016152 |
60.8 |
86.1 |
48245 |
75.2 |