This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Japan
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-536200 |
-2.6 |
-19.6 |
6755 |
10.1 |
| 25.0% |
198887 |
0.9 |
-3.3 |
10770 |
15.3 |
| 50.0% |
792808 |
2.6 |
5.2 |
13424 |
18.0 |
| 75.0% |
1968290 |
4.7 |
11.6 |
16224 |
21.0 |
| 97.5% |
4875296 |
9.0 |
43.4 |
24889 |
27.2 |