This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Israel
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1889567 |
-26.3 |
-64.7 |
-3822 |
-32.8 |
| 25.0% |
-479476 |
-5.1 |
-5.9 |
-759 |
-5.6 |
| 50.0% |
-63882 |
-0.7 |
11.6 |
711 |
4.6 |
| 75.0% |
536927 |
5.9 |
35.9 |
2553 |
18.0 |
| 97.5% |
2726934 |
30.6 |
69.8 |
8802 |
44.0 |