This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: Iraq
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-3648989 |
-8.9 |
-2.4 |
-7030 |
-29.4 |
| 25.0% |
717248 |
1.8 |
54.9 |
-2536 |
-10.0 |
| 50.0% |
2818498 |
7.1 |
74.1 |
424 |
1.3 |
| 75.0% |
5703561 |
16.2 |
82.4 |
5814 |
17.0 |
| 97.5% |
13519439 |
42.3 |
91.2 |
17961 |
42.0 |