This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: India
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
101363391 |
13.6 |
-40.6 |
-166714 |
-32.4 |
| 25.0% |
142777230 |
19.5 |
18.1 |
-100135 |
-19.7 |
| 50.0% |
169779730 |
22.4 |
36.9 |
-56821 |
-11.0 |
| 75.0% |
199715415 |
25.8 |
53.4 |
-1774 |
-0.3 |
| 97.5% |
257031850 |
35.7 |
72.0 |
165990 |
21.9 |