This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Honduras
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1039816 |
-7.6 |
-0.3 |
-1961 |
-19.9 |
| 25.0% |
1300261 |
9.6 |
49.5 |
1024 |
8.4 |
| 50.0% |
2410724 |
18.4 |
67.8 |
2599 |
19.7 |
| 75.0% |
3786305 |
28.4 |
77.9 |
4810 |
30.3 |
| 97.5% |
6667886 |
44.5 |
88.6 |
8737 |
49.4 |