This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Guatemala
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-2500883 |
-10.8 |
10.9 |
-2213 |
-10.3 |
| 25.0% |
194491 |
0.7 |
47.5 |
520 |
2.2 |
| 50.0% |
1715204 |
5.5 |
61.6 |
2097 |
8.5 |
| 75.0% |
2889725 |
9.8 |
74.2 |
4983 |
18.7 |
| 97.5% |
6355583 |
22.8 |
85.5 |
11775 |
36.1 |