This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: United Kingdom
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-2488600 |
-5.4 |
-73.0 |
-30462 |
-15.6 |
| 25.0% |
-1041686 |
-2.4 |
-11.9 |
-20406 |
-10.1 |
| 50.0% |
-335982 |
-0.6 |
11.5 |
-16010 |
-7.7 |
| 75.0% |
770604 |
1.4 |
25.2 |
-11915 |
-5.5 |
| 97.5% |
4069439 |
6.7 |
36.6 |
510 |
0.2 |