This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
Back to analysis selection index page
Selected country: France
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1303307 |
-2.1 |
-24.1 |
-19988 |
-12.8 |
| 25.0% |
-50676 |
-0.1 |
4.0 |
-2725 |
-1.6 |
| 50.0% |
1123974 |
2.3 |
17.3 |
2781 |
1.6 |
| 75.0% |
2856269 |
5.8 |
26.0 |
10204 |
5.8 |
| 97.5% |
9052048 |
14.7 |
43.3 |
31690 |
15.9 |