This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Egypt
Selected analysis: SA1: Increased household transmission during closures
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-5381580 |
-14.5 |
-13.1 |
-10566 |
-38.8 |
| 25.0% |
-2019664 |
-4.5 |
44.2 |
-5416 |
-19.3 |
| 50.0% |
-202981 |
-0.5 |
62.6 |
-1790 |
-6.1 |
| 75.0% |
3819168 |
8.9 |
74.3 |
4105 |
11.7 |
| 97.5% |
16630143 |
33.9 |
85.9 |
27393 |
42.0 |