This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Ecuador
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-388330 |
-1.9 |
7.5 |
-3021 |
-14.0 |
| 25.0% |
2488940 |
14.6 |
51.3 |
798 |
3.5 |
| 50.0% |
3610797 |
20.8 |
61.7 |
5270 |
19.2 |
| 75.0% |
4808342 |
27.6 |
73.8 |
9634 |
31.1 |
| 97.5% |
7836614 |
41.3 |
88.7 |
18536 |
43.9 |