This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Canada
Selected analysis: SA2: Without Google mobility data
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-1851813 |
-7.1 |
-2.6 |
-4653 |
-7.6 |
| 25.0% |
-68732 |
-0.2 |
21.5 |
846 |
1.5 |
| 50.0% |
675484 |
2.4 |
27.5 |
5579 |
9.2 |
| 75.0% |
1945054 |
8.6 |
49.3 |
12381 |
19.4 |
| 97.5% |
5383321 |
20.4 |
72.3 |
30117 |
35.2 |