This page presents detailed model outputs associated with the following article:
Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: a modelling analysis.
Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, David S Shipman, Michael T Meehan, Alec S Henderson, Guillaume Briffoteaux, Nouredine Melab, Daniel Tuyttens, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer.
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Selected country: Bulgaria
Selected analysis: Base case analysis
- The first panel presents a scenario comparison based on the maximum a-posteriori parameter set.
- The second and third panels present the uncertainty around the estimated epidemic trajectories, as median (black lines), interquartile range (dark shade) and 95% credible interval (light shade).
Relative outcomes
- Positive values indicate a positive effect of school closures on the relevant indicator.
- Negative values indicate that school closures exacerbated the relevant COVID-19 indicator..
|
N infections averted |
% infections averted |
% hospital peak reduction |
N deaths averted |
% deaths averted |
| percentile |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.5% |
-989305 |
-15.4 |
-38.8 |
-5624 |
-17.6 |
| 25.0% |
-66884 |
-1.2 |
3.2 |
-1040 |
-2.7 |
| 50.0% |
143754 |
2.1 |
25.4 |
871 |
2.2 |
| 75.0% |
460117 |
5.4 |
43.3 |
2548 |
6.1 |
| 97.5% |
1418684 |
15.9 |
67.9 |
6761 |
15.2 |